Who Should Become Speaker

Today, March 14, 2007, is the one month anniversary of the resignation of former speaker Edwin Snowe. It seems a long time given the many things that have happened in Liberia. Anytime from now, pending the conclusion of deliberations as to the constitutional procedure in replacing a speaker, a motion may be made by one of the 64 members of the House of Representatives for an election or the ascendancy of a new speaker. Whatever happens, that speaker is expected to come from the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), the party with the majority--16 in total-- and currently enjoys that position in acting Speaker Rep. Mulbah Tokpah.

To many, that CDC produces the next speaker is as interesting as who the individual actually is. That interest is driven in part by the allegation of bribery levied by former speaker Snowe, who accused some lawmakers as well as officials connected to the Executive Mansion as the progenitors of what is dubed "the unsuccessful removal attempt."

Predictably, if there is voting, a CDC candidate will win and catapult the party as the leading political opposition to the Unity Party-led government, finally correcting a once bizarre political configuration in our presidential system in which an independent held the speaker position.

Reportedly, three men are at the center of the caucusing for this position--acting Speaker Tokpah, Rep. ketterkumehn Murray, and Rep. Edward Forh. That one of these men becomes the next speaker is hardly surprising. That none becomes is almost inconceivable; however, legislative politics in Liberia is embedded with a degree of uncertainty and indeterminacy that tends to make prediction such as mine shortsighted.

Of the men, acting Speaker Tokpah has the better chance of landing the job. He has the experience. He also has the the power of incumbency, an advantage that can come handy during election, especially from moderates who may not want the total changing of the guard--not to mention the likely support from those who opposed Snowe's removal.

On the party front, it is in the acting speaker that CDC has the better chance of retaining the speaker position; having 16 of the 64 members is not a comfortable majority, especially in a House where former speaker Snowe and others have called for investigating the allegation of bribery.

In a political democracy, any appearance of a rift among lawmakers from the majority party usually jeopardizes that party's chances of succeeding, whether it is in an election or the passage of a bill. The way the numbers are distributed in the lower House, any rift among lawmakers representing the CDC could ensure it loses out on the speaker position in an election where other parties feed candidates.

In fact, one can sense some sort of rift emerging between the acting speaker and Rep. Murray. Read the acting speaker's interview given to Frontpage Saturday:"My position is clear on that issue and I think the constitution is very clear on this issue. If they want to violate the constitution that's their prerogative, but I am not going to stand with them," Tokpah said.

Assuredly, Rep. Murray is one of the people the acting speaker is vowing not to stand with. The Montserrado County representative is the man leading the charge for electing a new speaker, the one the acting speaker thinks wants to break the law. I don't think Rep. Murray wants to break the law. His contention that the Constitution is unclear as to replacing a speaker is right, but it is counter-intuitive at best because the framers of the constitution imagined that in the event a speaker is removed, incapacitated, etc, the deputy speaker should ascend, or the House should revert to a precedent experience to determine the option that best approximates with the House rules, which would be consistent with the constitution.

Rep. Murray was the presumptive front runner in the race to replace former speaker Snowe. On January 22, 2007, the Frontpage newspaper ran a story that revealed that he was a "wanted" man in the United States for sexual offense. It is actually unclear whether the lawmaker is wanted, but the timing of the story had the effect of bludgeoning any ambition Murray harbored of becoming speaker. Also, former speaker Snowe has implicated him in the bribery fiasco as one of the recipients of the infamous $5,000. But Mr. Murray has denied those allegations.

In his district, Rep Murray faces a threat of impeachment from some citizens, according to the Public Agenda newspaper. But the impeachment threat is as old as Rep. Murray as lasted in the House, making it appears as if it is politically motivated from people with a lingering residual anger carried over from the 2005 election. Despite all this trouble, Rep. Murray does not appear as a man hanging onto his position. But the controversy about him is too plenty for someone who wants to be speaker. His best bet for now is to remain the Chairman of the Executive Committee.

The name Edward Forh has been mentioned several times in connection with the position. But not much is known of him, safe his sturdy opposition to former speaker Snowe. He is most definitely the unknown variable, the one who could be the formidable challenger to the acting speaker in an election. He is a hardliner at best, the one who objected to the inclusion of Rep. Murray on a delegation to the U.S. recently, according to a story in the Public Agenda newspaper.

But he is not without issues. Sources familiar with legislative politics accuse him of being the choice of the Executive Mansion; and therefore would not provide the kind of opposition we saw under Snowe, something that is said to be critical for the system of checks and balances. Even some go so far as to doubt his loyalty to his party, but he does command considerable clout within, especially among those who opposed Snowe. He has been implicated in the bribery scandal, as the one who distributed the cash. But he has denied those allegations as well. After all the theatrics and antics in the lower House, a best case scenario is for him to fight to become the deputy speaker.

Therefore, after all that has beset the lower House in recent times, it is best for the country that acting Speaker Tokpah becomes the next legitimate speaker.